These are projected end-of-season results based on computer simulations of the remaining Division 3 women’s basketball season (including conference tournaments). The D3 Datacast team Efficiency Ratings are used to create win probabilities for each future game and a random number generator is thrown to determine each game’s result against those probabilities. This process is repeated to simulate numerous potential seasons of data and create a range of outcomes.
It should be noted that 100% or 0% probabilities listed below do not represent true real-world odds of 100% or 0%, but rather these are the actual occurrence rates within the computer simulations. Teams can actually perform better or worse than our computer thinks they will. That is to say, the games will be played on the court.
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% Tourney: Percentage of simulations in which the team made the NCAA Tournament field.
% Top 4/8/16: Percentage of simulations in which the team earned a protected Top 4, 8, or 16 overall NPI seed in the NCAA Tournament.
% Pool AQ: Percentage of simulations in which the team earned their conference’s automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament (also called a Pool A bid).
If Need At-Large: Percentage of simulations in which the team earned an at-large bid (also called a Pool C bid) after not winning the automatic bid.
At-Large % if Last Loss in: Percentage of simulations in which the team earned an at-large bid after losing in their conference tournament in the round indicated. (Dashed results indicate losses in that round did not occur in any simulation.)
D3 Wins if At-Large (AVG): Average number of wins vs. Division 3 opponents the team accumulated in simulations in which they earned an at-large (Pool C) bid. These are actual wins, not the ‘adjusted’ or ‘net’ wins used in the NPI calculation.
D3 Wins if At-Large (MIN): Minimum number of wins vs. Division 3 opponents the team accumulated among simulations in which they earned an at-large (Pool C) bid.
Projected NPI (MIN/AVG/MAX): The team’s lowest/average/highest final NPI across all simulations.
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