Division III MBB ratings calculated based on Ken Pomeroy’s method. This is an attempt at replicating Ken Pomeroy’s excellent Division I efficiency ratings for Division III teams. A more thorough explanation can be found below the data table.
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A brief explanation of the ratings and method:
Only D3 vs. D3 games are included in the data set and team records. No Division I, II, NAIA, NCCAA, or other opponents are included. All stats come from NCAA.org. If box score data wasn’t reported to that site at the time of the last update, it won’t be in this data set yet. Explanation below data table.
AdjEM – Adjusted Efficiency Margin – This is the number of points (per 100 possessions) by which the team in question would be expected to beat an average team. This is that category by which teams are ranked overall.
AdjO – Adjusted Offense – This is the number of points (per 100 possessions) that the team in question would be expected to score against an average defense.
AdjD – Adjusted Defense – This is the number of points (per 100 possessions) that the team in question would be expected to allow against an average offense.
AdjT – Adjusted Tempo – This is the speed, in possessions per 40 minutes, at which the team in question would be expected to play against an average team.
SOS Win50 – This column represents the median rating of all off the opponents a team has played so far this season. This strength of schedule indicator is less susceptible to swings caused by a small handful of particularly poor (or strong) opponents.
OppEM/O/D – Opponents – These columns represent the average adjusted efficiency margin, offensive rating, and defensive rating of a team’s opponents. These give an idea of a team’s strength of schedule.
NCSOS OppEM – Non-conference – This column is the average adjusted efficiency margin of a team’s non-conference opponents.
Adj – Adjusted Nature – Raw offensive, defensive, and tempo ratings are calculated for each game using box score data. These numbers go through an automatic iterative process until they stabilize in an attempt to account for game tempo and quality of opposition. Each game number is adjusted to account for quality of opposition (a ‘good’ offensive output against a lowly defense might end up looking only average). The number next to each column is the team’s overall rank in that category.
Preseason ratings are generated with a MARCEL-like projection using recent historical team data plus some regression toward Division III average. This will be very inaccurate for teams with lots of roster turnover, but it is simple and will help stabilize early-season results. The preseason ratings will get less and less weight as the season goes on and will be completely gone by the end of December.
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