Simulating the Rest of the D3 Basketball Season 1,000 Times – Episode 131

The calendar turns from 2025 to 2026, marking the unofficial turn from non-conference play to conference season. There are a ton of important games that will be played between now and the end of the season but how might they play out and how might that shape the NCAA Division III men’s basketball tournament? With the help of the D3 Datacast computer we can take a look.

Using the D3 Datacast team efficiency ratings we can simulate the remaining games yet to be played and run it through NPI. Do it 1,000 times and we can get a picture of how likely teams are to win their automatic qualifier and, if necessary, qualify for the tournament as an at-large selection. We go through those probabilities as we stand today, and look further at the teams most likely to end up seeded in the top eight or to be in hosting position as a top 16 seed. With a tournament field set, we also make a mock bracket and talk about general bracketing philosophies that will shape the bracket we ultimately get come tournament time.

Join us this week on The D3 Datacast for that and more as we have five more games to pick against the computer line then wrap up with a peek in the mailbag.

Note: This episode had been available in early access through Patreon. Head to our Patreon page for more information on how you can support us and gain early access to future episodes.

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Simulating the Rest of the D3 Basketball Season 1,000 Times – Episode 131

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