Way back in week one of the 2025 Division III football season Case Western Reserve and Rowan faced a difficult situation. Inclement weather in the area of Glassboro, New Jersey had already delayed the game twice and there did not appear to be a window in which to continue the game to its conclusion.
The major problem was that since the game was still in the third quarter, there was not a clear mechanism for triggering a final result. So, it was left up for negotiation and, despite the fact that Rowan held a 17-14 lead at the time, all parties involved agreed to call the game a tie. From the Rowan athletics website:
Saturday’s season-opening contest against Case Western Reserve was concluded with 2:07 remaining in the third quarter with the Profs ahead, 17-14, due to lingering inclement weather.
After two lighting delays that lasted a combined four hours, a mutually agreed decision by the coaches, referees, and the athletic directors was made to end the game in a 17-17 tie.
With national rankings and tournament selection and seeding set by NPI, every result matters. How did agreeing to a tie work out for these two teams compared to whatever other options may have been on the table? Thanks to how NPI works we can play the scenarios to know exactly how things could have turned out to see if a more optimal decision could have been made.
Actual scenario – Case Western Reserve and Rowan tie
As a baseline we need to know how things actually turned out and that is just a matter of looking at the final NPI rankings.
Rowan: 60.519 NPI, #53 Overall
CWRU: 48.316 NPI, #132 Overall
Alternate scenario – Game ruled a no contest
In the absence of an agreed-upon resolution to the situation it would seem the default would have been for the game to be ruled a no contest. Had that been the case the game would have ended and it would have had no effect on either team’s record. It would be as if the portion of the game was played had never been played.
Rowan: 62.120 NPI, #46 Overall
CWRU: 47.060 NPI, #143 Overall
Now that we’re making changes to Rowan and CWRU that is going to impact all teams whose schedules interact with them, especially their direct opponents. In a no contest scenario Christopher Newport ends up the number two overall seed (swapping places with Wartburg who go to three). At-large selections remain the same with Grove City still claiming the last bid, but the margin over Ohio Northern shrinks to a razor-thin 0.0216.
Alternate scenario – Rowan awarded the win
It can’t be ignored that Rowan was in the lead at the time the game stopped for good so we should take a look at what the final NPI results would have looked like had Rowan been awarded the win. Surely the Rowan side tried to argue for this result but it makes sense that CWRU would not agree to it if they didn’t have to, which they didn’t.
Rowan: 62.656 NPI, #43 Overall
CWRU: 46.170 NPI, #150 Overall
Here, not surprisingly, we also see Christopher Newport and Wartburg flip for the number two and number three overall seed while Salisbury and Hardin-Simmons flip-flop for 12 and 13 but there is another, more seismic shift in this scenario. Had that week one game been able to someone get to being a win for Rowan, Ohio Northern would have been in the playoff field with Utica and Grove City the first and second teams out.
Theoretical scenario – Game somehow was able to continue and CWRU won
Case Western Reserve was trailing and it was determined the game would not be able to be played to its actual conclusion so there was never a path to an outcome in which the Spartans won. However, for the sake of looking at this from all angles and to identify the opportunity cost taken from Case Western Reserve by the weather, let’s also look at what NPI would have been if they could have won.
Rowan: 58.445 NPI, #60 Overall
CWRU: 50.338 NPI, #120 Overall
Had the game been able to continue and ended up a Case Western Reserve victory some of the benefits seen above for NJAC teams go away. Christopher Newport still would have been the third-overall seed but Salisbury falls a spot below UW-Platteville. Grove City gets the final at-large bid with just a bit more breathing room ahead of Ohio Northern.
So, who “won” the tie?
I can’t speak to the exact motivations or lines of thinking of either side in working toward a solution or in agreeing to the one that was reached. To the extent that doing what was in the best interest of maximizing their NPI was a consideration, comparing the scenarios above, agreeing to the tie was the worst-possible outcome for Rowan and the best-possible outcome for Case Western Reserve.
However, the biggest winner here appears to be Grove City.
As Rowan head coach Pat Ruley told D3football.com, any other opponent and the game could have been suspended and resumed the following day. Unfortunately, the distance between schools meant that Case Western Reserve had to travel back so an immediate resolution had to be reached. Whether by the tie that was ultimately agreed to or by way of ruling a no contest, anything but a Rowan win was to Grove City’s benefit.
For Ohio Northern, the numbers will say they came up 0.167 NPI short of a playoff berth. In reality, it may have been they came up minutes short. A few minutes of a delayed weather pattern, a few minutes of a break in the storms to play more football, a few minutes here, a few minutes there. A Rowan win and Ohio Northern would have been in.
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